Future Trends in Indian Ecommerce Evolution

From the day WHO called coronavirus a global pandemic, and global leaders of developed and developing countries smashed a lockdown in no time, we looked into some the lockdown measures of USA and felt why it is so relaxed compare to India? Obviously they don’t have the largely dense population to deal with but yet – They never stopped their logistics or courier companies for eCommerce or any other type of movement of goods. Here are the few facts from New Jersey state lockdown measures –

“Selected retail businesses are allowed to remain open: grocery stores, food banks, pharmacies, medical marijuana dispensaries, gas stations, auto mechanics and repair services, convenience stores, banks, hardware and home improvement stores, laundromats, dry cleaners, printing and office supply shops, pet stores, stores that sell supplies for young children, and mail and delivering shops. Restaurants, bars, and liquor stores can also remain open, as long as they stick to takeout or delivery.Manufacturing, industrial, logistics, ports, heavy construction, shipping, food production, food delivery, and other commercial operations may continue operating. But they must keep staff at a minimal level on-site to make sure “essential operations can continue,” according to the order. “

Ultimately if you are an Indian eCommerce seller, you might love our country much but you love your business too and every day we feel like we are losing more and more. Currently, MHA is not planning to let any states open the eCommerce business for non-essentials but, as it was verbal communication – 2 states (Maharashtra & Odisha) have already declared that they are allowed to operate e-commerce companies to sell and deliver products – So what it would be for Ecommerce giants like Amazon Flipkart, Myntra, Paperfry & first cry…

1. Flipkart, Amazon & Pepperfry is having their huge warehouses in Maharashtra which fulfills order of more than 5 states very efficiently. As adjacent states have no permission for E-commerce non-essential goods movement.
2. Maharashtra is having the biggest number of migrant labors who also work for last-mile e-commerce deliveries too – eCommerce companies are working on it but as lockdown and social distancing are on it might be the toughest job to do it.  
3. At a point, new stocks of non-essential products will be required and if free movement of all the non-essential products will not be there for all the states it will be very hard to deliver the expectations of customers.
4. Sellers also don’t have the freedom to work as it will also be the case where the fulfillment of all the products might not be available, although it’s allowed.

So, until all the states plan to allow eCommerce companies to deliver products, it will also be very hard times for online sellers too, industry experts forecast that if the lockdown gets over tomorrow, it will take at least 3 months to recover the sales numbers for eCommerce sellers and Diwali expectations regarding the sales can be just as low as 9-10% up – which was 27% up in last year (compare to year on year numbers). Do you wonder why just 3 months to recover the sales numbers? Let’s look at the brighter side here, we compare lockdown measures of the USA – let’s check sales figures of the USA during this lockdown.

1. Spending on online purchases is up by 30% by the end of march, compared to last year’s figures. – According to one of the top market research companies.
2. Shoppers are now more focused on home entertainment products like Board games, cards, books or products related to cooking – to adjust the new normal life of lockdown.
3. Products like – Books, Cleaning agents, Toys and Games, Groceries, Pet Supplies, and Health and beauty products are likely to jump up.
4. People will require products like basic clothes like – shorts, basic t-shirts, slipping pants, undergarments, and a few garments accessories.
5. As hairdressers and parlors are out of business for the time being people will require hair trimmers, shavers, and clippers.
6. Products that help to work from home like – Laptops, printers, printer inks, stationery supplies, and few mobile & computer accessories.
7. We talked to some of the sellers who are very much depressed and looking for to way out of reducing costs for survival, but it’s all about targeting right audience with the right kind of products. The important thing to notice there is in India – Retail business contributes more than 98.5% Vs just 1.5% for e-commerce business. If a retail business is off then an eCommerce business is going to have better chances to bang the greater numbers.

We observed that People who are purchasing online are not who live on daily wages and those who are purchasing online will not have that hard hit by the economic slowdown due to COVID-19. It might be much worse news if you are selling strictly China-imported products or only products that China produces. But, never the less we all are in the same boat some of the Indian manufacturers are set to get their business on track but as the global political environment is facing heat it might melt China’s overall business – a few experts say that china is facing very first down growth in last 3 decades but surely it might be good news for few Indian manufacturers once all this gets over.

Currently, all we can say and ask online sellers is that better we prepare ourselves for an upcoming good season as sooner or later first the thing the Indian government will allow is online sales. Let’s prepare ourselves and as always our eCommerce consultants are very much happy to have you if you are looking to have expert advice for eCommerce sales.